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Dollar Gains Ground Amid Escalating Tensions with Iran

NEW YORK - The dollar experienced a significant rebound on Thursday (April 2), recovering from two consecutive days of losses following US President Donald Trump's speech regarding Iran, which dampened market hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict and prompted renewed interest in safe-haven assets.

In his televised address on Wednesday, Trump announced plans for more aggressive military actions against Iran over the next two to three weeks, without providing a definitive timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or concluding the ongoing war that has unsettled investors and disrupted markets.

In response, Iran's military issued a warning to the US and Israel, indicating that "more crushing, broader and more destructive" attacks could be forthcoming.

The US dollar strengthened against other safe-haven currencies, including the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. It rose by 0.6 percent to 0.799 against the Swiss franc and increased by 0.5 percent to 159.57 against the yen, approaching the significant 160 level that raises concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, noted, "There was a bit of optimism in recent days that the war might conclude soon, but President Trump's address undermined that hope. He didn't say anything new and failed to provide any details to support optimism. This uncertainty is the key fundamental driver right now—if you believe the war will end soon, you buy risk; if not, you sell risk."

The euro dropped 0.45 percent to US$1.1536, while sterling fell 0.63 percent to US$1.3222, both currencies losing some of their recent gains. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, increased by 0.46 percent to 100.02.

According to analysts at Scotiabank, led by Shaun Osborne, "President Trump's speech has intensified market concerns, as he discussed escalating strikes in the coming weeks and threatened to target Iran's power plants if a deal is not reached. The market reaction was swift, reversing most gains made by G10 currencies this week."

Brent crude futures rose by 7.78 percent to settle at US$109.03 per barrel, as Trump's comments reignited fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Investors Watch for US Jobs Report

Initially, Trump's remarks caused US Treasury yields to rise, but those gains have since diminished, with the yield on benchmark US 10-year notes dropping 1.6 basis points to 4.305 percent.

Investors are also awaiting Friday's US non-farm payrolls report for economic indicators and insights into potential Federal Reserve interest rate movements. The market anticipates a 60,000 increase in jobs for March, based on the median estimate from economists surveyed by Reuters.

The Australian dollar weakened by 0.3 percent against the greenback, trading at US$0.6904. Conversely, the euro rose 0.12 percent against the Swiss franc to 0.921.

In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin declined by 1.69 percent to US$67,023.77, while Ethereum fell by 3.98 percent to US$2,058.25.

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